Estimating the Risk of Chronic Pain: Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model (PICKUP) for Patients with Acute Low Back Pain

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Published online 2016 May 17. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002019

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Table 4

Predictors and regression coefficients for the three prognostic models.

Predictor	PICKUP		Model 2a		Model 2b
Predictor	Regression Coefficient	Odds Ratio (95% CI)	Regression Coefficient	Odds Ratio (95% CI)	Regression Coefficient	Odds Ratio (95% CI)
Disability compensation(yes/no)	0.50	1.65 (1.20 to 2.25)	0.42	1.52 (1.06 to 2.18)	0.43	1.53 (1.12 to 2.09)
Leg pain (yes/no)	0.44	1.56 (1.17 to 2.08)	0.53	1.71 (1.23 to 2.38)	0.46	1.58 (1.18 to 2.10)
Pain intensity (1–6 scale)	0.21	1.23 (1.06 to 1.44)	0.28	1.32 (1.09 to 1.60)	0.25	1.29 (1.10 to 1.50)
Depression (0–10 scale)	0.06	1.06 (1.02 to 1.11)	NS	NS	0.07	1.07 (1.03 to 1.12)
Perceived risk (0–10 scale)	0.13	1.14 (1.09 to 1.20)	0.14	1.15 (1.09 to 1.22)	0.11	1.12 (1.07 to 1.17)
Medication use (yes/no)	NS	NS	0.40	1.49 (1.08 to 2.05)	NS	NS
General health (1–5 scale)	NS	NS	NS	NS	0.25	1.28 (1.10 to 1.48)
Constant	−2.82		−3.92		−3.49

Values are adjusted for age, gender, and duration of LBP episode.

NS, non-significant predictor.